Russia escalates strikes on Ukraine's energy grid earlier than usual, ISW says

Russia has likely begun its annual campaign of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure earlier than usual, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), as Moscow seeks to maximize damage before Kyiv can develop countermeasures. The ISW report, cited by RBC-Ukraine, says Russia's Defense Ministry is framing the strikes as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets in Russia, which Moscow claims have continued since June 2026. Analysts believe this rhetoric prepares Russian society and the international community for a new large-scale campaign, as Putin may be shifting focus from battlefield advances to long-range strikes to make life unbearable for Ukrainian civilians and force capitulation. Russia has conducted similar winter campaigns against Ukrainian energy since 2022-2023, but this year's earlier start could target an already damaged grid before Ukraine strengthens defenses against new ballistic missiles and drones. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Defense Ministry reports its own long-range operations have disabled over 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity.