Russia's winter strikes on Ukraine's grid aim to break civilian morale, ISW says

Russia has attempted to justify its massive strikes on Ukraine's critical infrastructure this fall and winter by framing them as a "response" to Ukrainian long-range attacks, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Analysts say this rhetoric conceals the real goal of terrorizing civilians. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on October 4 it would intensify strikes on infrastructure in Kyiv and across Ukraine, presenting this as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets. ISW notes Russia began its winter strike campaign earlier than in previous years, aiming to maximize damage to Ukraine's degraded energy grid before effective countermeasures are developed. ISW analysts dismissed Moscow's claims as "openly false," noting Russia provided no evidence for accusations against Ukraine. They assess that Putin is shifting focus from battlefield advances to forcing Ukraine's capitulation through a 2026-2027 winter campaign designed to make civilian life unbearable.