ISW: Russia's early strikes on Ukraine's energy grid aim to outpace defenses

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia has launched its strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure earlier than usual, aiming to prevent Ukraine from developing effective countermeasures against ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones. According to the ISW report from October 4, Russia's Defense Ministry has framed the campaign as a response to alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian targets since June 2026. Analysts suggest Ukraine's 2026 battlefield successes are pushing Vladimir Putin to shift focus from ground offensives to forcing capitulation through winter strikes. The campaign aims to make civilian life unbearable in Ukraine. Russia has conducted similar winter strikes since 2022-2023, but this year's earlier start targets already damaged infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes have reportedly disabled over 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity.