ISW: Putin's war goals unrealistic as Russia's advance slows

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not prepared to make significant compromises to end the war against Ukraine, according to a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Kremlin continues to adhere to maximalist demands first outlined in June 2024, including the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions and Ukraine's rejection of NATO membership. The ISW report, based on statements following Putin's meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, suggests the Russian leadership may be overestimating its military successes due to distorted information from commanders. A Kremlin-linked source claimed Putin believes Russian forces can capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026, a goal the ISW considers unrealistic. The ISW notes that Russian forces have failed to meet at least 15 previous deadlines for capturing Donetsk Oblast, with fighting for Kostonstantynovka ongoing for 11 months. At current advance rates of 2.91 square kilometers per day, the ISW calculates Russia would not capture the remaining 19% of the region until October 2032, if ever.