Russia's 15 Missed Deadlines: ISW Says Donetsk Capture at Current Pace Would Take Until 2032

Russian forces have failed 15 deadlines to capture Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimating that at current pace, full occupation would only occur by autumn 2032, not by the Kremlin's end-of-2026 target. Russian troops have been fighting for Kostyantynivka since October 2025 without fully capturing any of the "belt of fortresses" cities (Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka) in nearly a year. August 2026 advance rates across the front averaged 2.91 square kilometers daily, with 2.36 in Donetsk Oblast specifically. ISW analysts attribute Putin's unrealistic deadlines to systematic military misinformation and a "culture of lies," noting Ukraine has maintained tactical initiative while Russian forces face logistical challenges. Putin increasingly treats distorted front-line reports as reality, including claims presented to US envoys on September 6.