Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Testing Trump’s Diesel Import Deal

Ukraine resumed drone attacks on Russian oil refineries on Oct. 15, targeting Rosneft's Ryazan facility and complicating President Donald Trump's diesel import deal with Moscow, which faces legal challenges and warnings of limited price relief. The strike, which started a fire at a refinery supplying nearly 5% of Russian throughput, came after Kyiv paused energy attacks for three days because Russia continued striking Ukrainian infrastructure. Trump announced Oct. 9 that Russia would supply over 300,000 metric tons of diesel to American and global markets, with larger shipments planned, though the initial volume equals less than one day's U.S. transportation sector consumption. Twelve bipartisan senators urged Trump to rescind the agreement, arguing the price benefit would be negligible while revenue would finance Russia's war. Treasury's General License 135 authorizing imports through April 2027 contradicts Congress's 2022 statutory ban, which requires presidential certification of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and a 90-day congressional review period. The International Energy Agency warned easing Russian export restrictions won't materially change global supply, with diesel markets potentially tight into 2027.