US think tank outlines scenario of limited Russian invasion of Estonia

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War published a hypothetical scenario Monday outlining a limited Russian incursion into Estonia's border city of Narva to test NATO's collective defense commitments. The scenario is not a prediction of Russian intent. The scenario envisions Russian agents seizing key buildings in Narva and declaring a "Narva People's Republic," with Moscow claiming protection of Russian citizens. Russia would rely on drones, electronic warfare, and special forces rather than massed troops, aiming to create a political crisis within NATO over Article 5. The broader goal would be to test NATO's response credibility while Moscow remains committed to its war in Ukraine. ISW argues NATO should prepare for smaller operations and strengthen drone and counter-drone capabilities, while emphasizing the importance of a clear U.S. commitment to defending European allies.