Brazilian Pollsters Missed Lula's Win by Overcorrecting for Right-Wing Bias
Brazilian polling institutes erred in Brazil's presidential election by overcorrecting for past right-wing underestimates, failing to capture Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory over Flávio Bolsonaro. The final margin was 51.79% to 48.21% for Lula, a 3.58-point difference. Pollsters projected a narrow Bolsonaro lead of 1-2 points, using "models" that added a buffer for the right, based on trends since 2018. AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman publicly admitted the error, noting no institute captured the unprecedented second-round pro-Lula mobilization. The average error was nearly five points, a gross mistake attributed to flawed methods. The institutes were deceived by voters and their own models, as the usual right-wing cushion did not materialize this time.