Lula's voter surge and turnout shift explain poll miss, says AtlasIntel analyst

cartacapital.com.br (Portuguese) —

Pollster AtlasIntel's political risk chief Yuri Sanches says Lula's voter mobilization and unprecedented turnout shifts explain why pre-election polls missed his victory over Flávio Bolsonaro by nearly 4.4 million votes on Sunday. Major surveys released Saturday showed Bolsonaro leading 51% to 49%, but Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%. Abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.22%, dropping from 33.5 million to 30.5 million non-voters between rounds. Sanches notes polls measure voting intention and turnout likelihood, with human behavior hard to predict. He credits Lula's historic political weight for the comeback, calling the moment complex and challenging for pollsters.


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Lula's voter surge and turnout shift explain poll miss, says AtlasIntel analyst | News Minimalist