Brazil polls missed Lula's comeback win over Bolsonaro

Polling firms failed to capture President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's comeback victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential runoff. Most final surveys showed Bolsonaro leading by 2 percentage points, but Lula won with 51.79% of valid votes against Bolsonaro's 48.21%. The polls' inaccuracy reversed a first-round problem where few firms had placed Bolsonaro ahead. Lula's surge was driven by increased turnout in the Northeast and gains in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Bahia, where he added 5.5 million votes versus Bolsonaro's 2.05 million. National abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.22% between rounds, the lowest in 20 years. Analysts note polls are snapshots with margins of error, and the polarized, tight race posed measurement challenges. The analysis covered 33 surveys from 11 firms conducted from September 30 to October 24, 2026.