Lula defeats Bolsonaro in Brazil, defying prediction markets

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff election on Sunday, defying prediction market odds that had heavily favored his opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula was rated an underdog at 20.2 percent on Kalshi and 20.5 percent on Polymarket at noon EDT, while Bolsonaro held an 81 percent chance on Kalshi and 79.8 percent on Polymarket. Official results showed Lula won 51.8 percent of valid votes versus Bolsonaro’s 48.2 percent, a margin of 10.4 million voters. Bolsonaro initially sought an annulment of the results but later promised to organize opposition. Prediction markets have opened on whether the annulment succeeds before the Dec. 18 certification deadline.