Poll: Le Pen leads 2027 French presidential race after October violence

A new Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio, published Tuesday, October 20, shows Marine Le Pen leading the 2027 presidential race, with her support increasing in nearly all scenarios following the October 17 urban violence. Le Pen would receive between 34% and 38% of first-round votes depending on the scenario, a rise of up to two points from the previous poll. She would win the second round decisively against all opponents, including 68-32% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and 56-44% against Édouard Philippe. The survey of 1,928 registered voters was conducted online from October 17 to 19. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann are competing for second place, while François Hollande's candidacy would boost Mélenchon to 20%.