France's Fiscal Strain Is No Debt Crisis

France's budget deficit rose to 5.1% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to climb to 5.4% in 2026, signaling persistent fiscal stress despite investor dismissal of a full-blown debt crisis. The country's unfavorable debt trajectory and real political constraints are key concerns, though more resilient regional conditions and a stronger European Central Bank could help contain market fears. If French bond markets face disorderly moves, the ECB could adjust quantitative tightening. Public unrest over the cost of living, seen from Paris to Marseilles in mid-October, adds pressure on the government to address fiscal challenges while managing social stability.