Strait of Hormuz ship traffic masks weaker oil flows

Marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained statistically stable last week, but a sharp decline in cargo-carrying vessels reveals weaker oil flows. Laden crossings fell 27% to 35, while empty tanker movements rose to 61 and sanctioned vessel transits nearly doubled. The imbalance suggests reduced commercial loading inside the Gulf, with more empty ships positioning rather than completing export voyages. Iran's unilateral routing scheme now accounts for 46.3% of all crossings, while traditional UN-approved lanes see little use. Meanwhile, Saudi tanker AMZAN was struck in the Red Sea on Monday, with Houthi rebels claiming responsibility. The incident underscores elevated security risks across regional chokepoints despite stable headline numbers. Analysts say aggregate transit counts mask deteriorating commercial throughput and growing reliance on sanctioned or dark fleet activity.