Trump's Iran Sanctions Face China Test

The Trump administration's threat of an "economic D-Day" against Iran faces a major obstacle: China, which buys roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports. Any effective sanctions campaign would likely require targeting Chinese companies, a move that could jeopardize the fragile US-China trade truce. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced new sanctions on entities and vessels, warning of secondary sanctions against countries and companies doing business with Iran. However, he deflected questions about China, preferring "quiet diplomacy" ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit in September. Experts note that excluding China would limit the campaign's impact, while targeting Chinese firms risks retaliation. China has long rejected US sanctions as illegitimate and allowed private refiners to circumvent them. Analysts warn that targeting Chinese banks could be seen as breaching the trade truce, prompting retaliation on critical minerals or pharmaceuticals. The campaign also risks widening economic disruption beyond Iran to India, Turkey, and Gulf states, echoing the limited success of sanctions on Russia.