Indian Refiners' Early De-Risking Eases Russia Sanctions Waiver Impact, Experts Say

Indian refiners face temporary relief from US tariffs on Russian oil purchases, as they had already reduced dependence on Russian crude, experts said. The waiver follows the Graham Act signed September 18, with import costs rising sharply. India's crude import bill jumped 46.4% annually to $90.6 billion in April-September 2027-28, as Russian crude imports fell 33.3% to 1.8 million barrels per day from a July peak. Refiners replaced discounted Russian oil with costlier US, West African, and South American sources, raising September imports to $15.4 billion. Experts warn the waiver offers no long-term certainty, as secondary sanctions are deferred, not scrapped. Washington retains leverage to revive tariff threats in bilateral trade talks, while US interests determine penalty applications, leaving India's energy security and trade negotiations vulnerable.