Ukraine's fifth wartime winter: Can the energy grid survive Russian strikes?

Ukraine faces its most challenging winter since the full-scale war began, as intensified Russian air attacks on critical infrastructure threaten the energy system ahead of the heating season. A massive combined attack on September 30 marked the first since spring, with over 2,000 strikes on energy facilities from mid-July to mid-October. An October 19 attack hit 28 substations, leaving at least 550,000 households without power. Despite larger gas reserves and 24 contingency scenarios, analysts warn of five key risks, including faster drones, ballistic missiles, and prolonged air alerts. Kyiv remains the most vulnerable node, though decentralized generation offers some hope.