Xi Jinping’s Thucydides Trap pitch to Washington: Peaceful coexistence or inevitable conflict?

Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly invoked the "Thucydides Trap" in talks with US leaders, arguing that China and the US must coexist peacefully as China's power grows, rather than viewing conflict as inevitable. The term, popularized by Harvard's Graham Allison, describes tensions when a rising power challenges an established one, drawing on ancient Greek history. Xi has used it since 2014, including in meetings with Presidents Trump and Biden, framing US-China ties as a test of major-power coexistence. Allison's research found 12 of 16 historical power transitions ended in war, but analysts note peaceful examples like the US overtaking the UK. Some critics say the concept oversimplifies conflict causes, questioning its usefulness for understanding current US-China dynamics.