Canada's trade leverage over the US economy and Trump

Canada, which sends about 70% of its goods to the US, retains significant leverage in the trade dispute as the top customer for 26 American states. Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing strategic "dollar-for-dollar" retaliatory duties on steel, dairy, appliances, and other goods. Canada supplies most US natural gas and electricity imports plus 60% of crude oil, though energy is not currently targeted. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has floated a 25% electricity surcharge and warned Trump about potash and critical minerals. Provincial alcohol bans have already cut US wine exports by 78% and spirits by over 70%. Canadian travel boycotts cost the US about $2.35bn last year, and polls show 76% of Canadians support Ottawa's hard line. With US midterms approaching, tariffs could cost American households $1,100 annually, potentially hurting Republican prospects in border states like Michigan and Maine.