Tarcísio's election projection for Bolsonaro falls short of actual result

São Paulo's re-elected Governor Tarcísio de Freitas published a video on Sunday projecting that Flávio Bolsonaro would win the presidential election by 6 million votes, but the prediction proved incorrect. Lula was re-elected with 51.79% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 48.21% with all ballots counted. In the video posted on X, Tarcísio claimed he used official data from the Superior Electoral Court, an Excel spreadsheet, and Monte Carlo simulation to make his projection. He predicted Bolsonaro would win 53% to 47%, a margin that did not materialize in the actual results. The Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that uses repeated random sampling to calculate probabilities of different outcomes. Tarcísio's projection was significantly off from the final tally, which showed Lula securing his fourth presidential term.