Brazil runoff projection shows Lula and Bolsonaro's likely final vote shares

estadao.com.br (Portuguese) —

A real-time projection of Brazil's presidential runoff shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro's likely final vote percentages, based on partial official counts. The simulation is not an official tally. Developed by researcher Rodrigo Mahlmeister, the projection compares counted votes in each electoral section with results from the 2022 runoff and 2026 first round to estimate remaining sections. It proved accurate in the first round, staying within half a point after 3% of sections were counted. The methodology, detailed on GitHub, includes a confidence interval that narrows as counting progresses. Official TSE results are also available separately.


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