JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Split on Hormuz Oil Flow Recovery

oilprice.com —

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs report Middle East oil flows have largely recovered to pre-war levels, though estimates for Strait of Hormuz exports vary significantly between the banks. JP Morgan estimates September crude exports at 17.5 million barrels daily, 98% of pre-war levels, with fuel exports at 58%. Goldman Sachs projects Persian Gulf outflows at 23.3 million barrels daily, matching 2025 averages, citing Saudi Arabia's doubled exports. Other estimates differ sharply: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent puts Persian Gulf exports at 17 million barrels daily only "sometimes," while TotalEnergies' CEO calculates Hormuz exports at just 10 million barrels daily.


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