Iran's leverage over Strait of Hormuz weakens as oil flows recover

Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to nearly 80 percent of pre-war levels, potentially weakening Iran's leverage in negotiations to end seven months of hostilities with the US and Israel. Crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the war began, with Saudi Arabia driving much of the increase. However, tanker insurance costs remain elevated, and attacks on ships continue, indicating flows are not yet secure. Iran faces severe economic strain, with GDP contracting 10.1 percent and inflation at 69.9 percent, while the US also suffers from high energy prices. Indirect talks continue, with disagreements centered on the sequencing of measures in Iran's proposed seven-day roadmap.