Hormuz crude shipments recover to prewar levels, but fuel exports lag

Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar levels, reaching a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day as of Monday, matching the prewar baseline, according to Kpler data published Wednesday. The recovery is uneven, as refined product shipments remain severely constrained at 677,000 barrels per day versus 3.6 million before the war, contributing to record U.S. diesel prices and political pressure for an export ban. Iran's own crude exports have cratered due to a U.S. Navy blockade, while over 70% of Hormuz crude now transfers between tankers off the UAE or Oman, protected by U.S. military escorts. Pipelines bypassing Hormuz now carry about 40% of Gulf crude, up from 17% prewar, though they remain vulnerable to attack. The sustainability of this arrangement is uncertain, with analysts warning of potential escalation after the midterm elections.