Iran's Hormuz oil threat fades as Middle East exports near pre-war levels

Middle East crude oil exports have recovered this month to nearly 80% of pre-war levels, approaching their highest point since the Iran war began in February, according to market data cited by the Wall Street Journal. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes reached almost 13 million barrels per day, up from February's near 19 million, with Saudi Arabia resuming use of the East-West pipeline after a drone attack. This recovery weakens Iran's ability to disrupt oil flows as a leverage tool in US negotiations, while US naval blockades prevent Iran from exporting its own crude. Iran's oil stockpiles may run out by mid-October, straining its economy, but analysts warn Tehran could escalate attacks on Gulf infrastructure or via Houthi allies in the Red Sea, risking higher global energy prices.