Analysts raise 2026 oil forecasts on Gulf export disruption

Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts, with Brent crude expected to average nearly $90 a barrel due to prolonged disruption to Gulf exports, according to a Reuters poll of 30 economists. The September survey projected Brent at $89.05 and U.S. crude at $83.90 per barrel, with forecasts ranging from $77.27 to $97.60. Analysts doubt a near-term restoration of Strait of Hormuz exports, leaving inventories to absorb supply shortfalls. Chinese stockpiles, drawn down during the conflict, are a key uncertainty, though imports have risen to nearly 9 million bpd. Most analysts see supply risks, not demand weakness, driving prices, with a market surplus expected by 2027.