Saxony-Anhalt election exposes major polling errors across parties

Polling institutes significantly missed the final result of the Saxony-Anhalt state election, particularly for the CDU, which received 17.2 percent despite forecasts of 22 to 23 percent. The AfD clearly won with 43.8 percent, slightly exceeding most final poll predictions. The Greens were underestimated at 8.9 percent versus polls of 5 to 6 percent, while the Left underperformed at 8.6 percent against forecasts of 11 to 13 percent. The BSW entered parliament with 5.3 percent despite all pollsters placing it below the five-percent threshold. This follows the 2021 election when the CDU was underestimated by up to ten points. Pollsters note that eastern German voters are less bound to parties, making elections harder to predict, and emphasize that surveys only reflect a statistical mood at the time of polling.