AfD's historic win in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt sparks European nationalist fears

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won a historic 43.8% in Germany's Saxony-Anhalt state election, nearly doubling its previous score, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU collapsed to 17.2% and the SPD fell to 9.3%, signaling a major setback for the political centre. The result has sparked fears across Europe of a nationalist wave ahead of upcoming elections in Sweden, France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. The AfD, classified as "confirmed rightwing extremist" by domestic intelligence, won 39 of 83 parliamentary seats, just short of an outright majority, marking its strongest-ever state result and the closest any far-right party has come to governing a German state since World War II. Analysts caution against overinterpreting the result, noting Saxony-Anhalt has long been a far-right stronghold with support for the AfD consistently double the national average. Far-right parties now average over 23% of votes across Europe, up from about 10% a decade ago, and are in government in Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, while leading polls in Austria, Belgium, France, and Germany. Political scientists attribute the rise to mainstreaming of far-right ideas and voter frustration with ineffective centrist coalitions, though some note far-right parties have also suffered recent defeats in the Netherlands and Hungary.