Hamburg's AfD celebrates Saxony-Anhalt's rightward shift – but why the city remains far from a similar swing

The AfD achieved a historic 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt's state election, becoming the strongest party, but Hamburg remains far from such a right-wing shift despite the party's local growth. The party's Hamburg jubilation contrasts with its limited regional influence. In Hamburg, the AfD rose from 5.3% in the 2020 election to 7.5% in 2025, with recent polls reaching 12%. Its strongest support is in Neuallermöhe (21%), while membership grew to 730, though far behind other parties. Unlike Saxony-Anhalt, where 51% feel disadvantaged and the AfD leads in competence ratings, Hamburg's Senate enjoys 52% approval. The AfD is only trusted on asylum and crime, with no comparable trend emerging.