Poland's Constitutional Tribunal crisis: what happens next

Poland's political crisis escalated into a physical confrontation at the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw on Friday night, involving President Karol Nawrocki, after disputed changes to the court's leadership. The standoff has now moved into political consultations, though the underlying conflict remains unresolved. The crisis stems from a decade-long dispute over the Tribunal's legitimacy, with President Nawrocki refusing to swear in five judges elected by the current parliament, who then took their oaths before the Speaker of the Sejm instead. The government has not published Tribunal rulings since 2024, citing its lack of independence, while the situation is widely seen as part of a broader power struggle between Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition and the conservative PiS-aligned president ahead of parliamentary elections in autumn 2027. Key developments are expected on Tuesday, November 3, when judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska has called a general assembly of Tribunal judges to address the budget and potential immunity removal for the suspended leadership. Analysts note the crisis has consolidated right-wing forces around Nawrocki, while Tusk's coalition shows signs of strain, with some coalition members attending presidential consultations.