US midterms 2026: How gold, oil, dollar, and AI stocks may move

US midterm election results giving Democrats control of Congress are expected to limit President Donald Trump's fiscal agenda, but analysts say markets will be driven more by interest rates, inflation, jobs data, and Iran policy than by the political shift alone. The divided government makes large tax and spending changes harder to pass, which analysts generally view as market-friendly due to reduced fiscal uncertainty. Key risks include potential brinkmanship over the 2027 debt ceiling, while the focus turns to how the new balance affects US rates, energy supply, and AI regulation. Gold traded up 5.2 percent to $4,138 an ounce, though analysts remain cautious about a sustained rally. Oil prices are seen as more influenced by geopolitical talks over the Strait of Hormuz than by election outcomes, while the US dollar's direction will depend heavily on upcoming economic data.