Lula's Win, Bolsonaro's Flight, and a US Without a Backyard

Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential election, defeating Jair Bolsonaro in a historic runoff, while Bolsonaro fled to the United States. The victory marks the first time a candidate who placed second in the first round has won the presidency in Brazil's democratic era. Lula's comeback was driven by strong mobilization of abstentionist voters and support from moderate right-wing factions, despite Bolsonaro's allegations of fraud. Bolsonaro's departure has left Brazil's right wing in a difficult position, though Lula faces a challenging mandate with a hostile Congress and economic pressures. The election signals a shift in Brazil's foreign policy, with Lula emphasizing national sovereignty and avoiding alignment with the United States. He is expected to strengthen ties with BRICS nations and the Global South, while maintaining pragmatic relations with Washington and Europe.