AI chatbots estimate 5-20% chance of human extinction by 2030

AI chatbots estimate a 5-20% chance that AI could cause human extinction by the end of the decade, following a recent warning from an Anthropic employee. ChatGPT gave a 5-10% probability for actual extinction, while Gemini consolidated expert views into a 10-20% range for catastrophic scenarios. Claude declined a specific number but called the risk "real and non-negligible." All three chatbots noted that non-existential harms, such as power concentration, severe economic crises, or loss of human control, are considered more likely in the near term than full extinction.