AI apocalypse predictions lack evidence, experts say

Experts say the public should treat dire AI extinction predictions with skepticism, as recent claims lack verifiable evidence and independent measurement. The debate intensified after an Anthropic researcher estimated over 10% odds of AI killing all humans within a decade. That figure, experts note, is a personal estimate rather than a measured probability, with no demonstrated path from today's models to superintelligence. Surveys of 1,580 AI researchers found a median 10% extinction risk, up from 5% two years ago, but responses ranged widely from zero to 25%. Calls for pauses have repeatedly failed to produce action since 2023, eroding credibility. Experts urge building a common risk scale like astronomy's Torino scale, while noting nearer-term harms like data center energy strain and military surveillance remain measurable and largely unaddressed.