Western Spy Agencies Split on Russian Attack Risk

Norwegian intelligence experts say Western agencies largely agree on the threat level from Russian hybrid operations, but differ on the likelihood of a conventional attack on NATO. The assessments are based on similar information, though countries have varying confidence in their own intelligence and differing political messaging. The debate follows warnings from the Institute for the Study of War and European officials about a possible Russian conventional attack on NATO within months, while Estonia's foreign minister says the threat picture is unchanged. Experts believe Russia is unlikely to explicitly test Article 5, but may use drones or false-flag operations to probe alliance unity. Tom Røseth, a lecturer at the Norwegian Defence University College, suggests the West should respond to Russian provocations by increasing support for Ukraine, citing Denmark's recent acceleration of a 1.8 billion kroner aid package after a Russian frigate fired signal flares at a Danish helicopter.