NATO split on Russian attack risk

European intelligence chiefs and leaders are issuing conflicting warnings about the threat from Russia, with some predicting a conventional attack on NATO within months while others say the threat picture is unchanged. The Czech intelligence chief warns an attack could come soon, but Estonia's foreign minister disputes this. The Institute for the Study of War warns Russia may plan a conventional attack on a NATO country sooner than expected, citing incidents like a drone found near Leipzig airport as escalation. Fears center on a limited attack in the Baltics to test NATO's Article 5, though Estonian officials say available data does not support claims Moscow is preparing a new front. Norwegian intelligence expert Tom Røseth says Western agencies largely agree on hybrid threats but differ on conventional attack assessments due to varying confidence in their own intelligence. He believes Russia won't explicitly test Article 5 but may use drones or false-flag operations, with the main goal being to deter European support for Ukraine.