Iran Tightens Grip on Strait of Hormuz as Heating Season Looms

Chances of uninterrupted oil deliveries to the US and Europe before the heating season have fallen to nearly zero, as Iran may further tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is escalating following President Trump's rejection of an Iranian ceasefire proposal. Oil prices have surged, with WTI trading at $94.06 and Brent above $108 per barrel. Experts suggest Iran is regulating oil supply through informal transport arrangements in the strait, while Europe faces greater vulnerability than the US due to its import dependence. The conflict has driven US household energy costs up by over $900 since February 2026. US diesel prices hit a record $6.28 per gallon, with heating costs projected to rise 30-50 percent this winter. Refineries operate at 98 percent capacity with distillate inventories at their lowest since 1951, while Russia's export ban and Middle East disruptions compound the global supply crisis.