Australian diesel prices could hit $4 per litre under proposed US export ban

A proposed US diesel export ban by President Donald Trump could push Australian diesel prices to $4 per litre, potentially forcing the Albanese government to slash fuel excise or implement rationing. The ban would remove about 30% of global seaborne diesel supply. Australia is highly vulnerable due to having the lowest oil stocks in the OECD, holding only 32 days' worth of diesel. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic warns of a supply "contagion" as other producers may follow, while Macquarie University's Dr Lurion De Mello predicts prices around $3.20-$3.30, prompting a fuel excise halving. The average national diesel price was $2.74 per litre in late September, with Australia importing over 40% from South Korea. Europe would face the hardest direct hit, while Australia's risk comes from indirect competition for Asian and Indian refinery supplies.