Global Rate Surge Shows Signs of Peaking as Yields Attract Investors

Global interest rates have surged throughout 2025, but evidence suggests this historic rise may be nearing its peak, with current yield levels now attracting investor interest. The US 10-year Treasury recently hit 5.27%, while Japanese and French equivalents also saw significant increases. The rally stems from post-Iran-war inflation, deficit concerns, and hyperscaler debt issuance. However, the Fed's tightening cycle, technical resistance near 5.4%, and volatile trading patterns indicate the move is maturing. Strong US economic data, including a September PMI of 58.4, had fueled the rise. Investors like JPMorgan's Bob Michele see the entire curve as oversold, suggesting stabilization could trigger buying. Higher rates also represent a return to pre-2008 normality, with a 5% US 10-year consistent with structurally higher growth and inflation.