Peak Trump has passed, but the next two years will be rocky

Donald Trump faces potential loss of Republican control in Congress after midterm elections, which could curtail his domestic agenda through Democratic House control and veto threats, though his executive power remains intact. Democrats could block funding for Trump programs, including a proposed 44% increase for the Department of War, and use debt ceiling negotiations to pressure concessions like restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Trump has vowed to veto legislation if Republicans lose, but may later negotiate deals. Markets expect gridlock, historically boosting shares, though AI stock concentration and record deficits add risk. Trump may intensify tariffs and foreign actions if stymied domestically, while Republicans eyeing 2028 elections could distance themselves, potentially enabling Democratic investigations or another impeachment attempt.