Politics, not strategy, may drive more Israeli strikes on Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is preparing for further major air strikes on Iran in the coming weeks, potentially alongside the United States, even as he faces a likely electoral defeat on October 27th. He has ordered intelligence officials to prepare new target lists and directed the IDF and Mossad to work toward overthrowing Iran's regime. Netanyahu's push for war is driven by political calculations, as an Iranian retaliation could disrupt opposition coalition-building and pressure rivals into a unity government under his leadership. However, he faces obstacles including President Donald Trump's prior reluctance to approve strikes, Gulf states' opposition to renewed conflict, and skepticism from Israel's own security establishment about the nuclear threat. The situation is complicated by rising tensions in the West Bank, where Palestinian gunmen killed two soldiers on October 23rd, prompting Netanyahu to order a lockdown. Israeli security officials warn the IDF is overstretched across multiple fronts and lacks capacity for a wide West Bank operation, while settler attacks risk provoking broader conflagration.