Israeli Election: Expat Vote Could Prove Decisive

Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday in what is described as the most important election in the country's history, the first since the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023, with the vote centered on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's handling of the attack and future security threats. The election is framed as a choice about Israel's fundamental character—whether it moves toward a more liberal and democratic direction or an authoritarian and religious one—with controversial legislation pending, including changes to the judicial selection committee that would increase political influence over Supreme Court appointments. Two main blocs, for and against Netanyahu, are in a dead heat according to polls, with neither expected to secure a majority without support from the two Arab parties, though some opposition parties refuse to cooperate with them, raising the risk of another election. Historically high voter turnout is anticipated, particularly among Israeli Arabs motivated by increased settler violence in the West Bank, and an estimated 60,000 Israelis abroad are expected to fly home to vote—a group leaning left that is not reflected in opinion polls and could prove decisive in the outcome.