Israel Election Scenarios: Netanyahu's Fate Hinges on Coalition Math

Israel's October 27 parliamentary election is projected to yield no outright majority, leaving the formation of a 61-seat Knesset coalition as the decisive factor in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political fate. Analysts outline five possible scenarios for the outcome. Netanyahu could retain power if his Likud party and right-wing allies, including far-right and ultra-Orthodox factions, cross the threshold, though current polling projects this bloc at roughly 52-54 seats. Alternatively, an opposition-led coalition, anchored by a non-aggression pact among four parties and potentially led by Gadi Eisenkot, could unseat him, or a national unity government might emerge from a deadlock. The ongoing Iran war shapes the race, serving as both a liability over October 7 accountability and a boost for Netanyahu's wartime leader persona. A coalition dependent on Arab-led parties or continued deadlock leading to new snap elections remain other possible outcomes.