Israel Election: Four Scenarios That Could Decide Netanyahu's Fate

Israelis vote on 27 October in their first national election since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks and the Gaza war, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing criticism over security failures while retaining a strong voter base. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, leads a diverse coalition seeking to remove Netanyahu from power. Four scenarios could emerge: a fragile opposition coalition uniting disparate factions, a Netanyahu majority if polls prove inaccurate, another election due to deadlock, or a minority government backed by Arab parties. Eisenkot's path requires reaching 61 parliamentary seats, potentially needing support from Arab Islamist party Raam, though such alliances face increased difficulty since the attacks. Israel's electoral system requires parties to win at least 3.25% of the vote, and votes for parties below that threshold can benefit rival blocs. The country held five elections between 2019 and 2022 amid political instability, and a major security crisis could increase chances of a temporary national unity arrangement.