Israel's High-Stakes Election: 5 Reasons October 27 Vote May Only Begin the Battle

Israelis vote Tuesday in an election seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership, with the outcome unlikely to immediately determine the next prime minister. The vote follows the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault and the Gaza war. Netanyahu's Likud and hard-right allies face a close contest against an opposition coalition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. No party has ever won an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, so coalition negotiations are crucial. Voters choose parties, not the prime minister, and a 3.25% vote threshold affects smaller parties' influence. Pre-election polls suggest neither bloc may secure the 61 seats needed to govern, raising the possibility of prolonged deadlock, a minority or unity government, or another election. Government formation typically takes 50 to 100 days, meaning Tuesday's vote could mark only the start of an extended political battle.