Fear of Le Pen could decide the EU budget battle

All EU leaders agree the proposed seven-year budget is unacceptable, but they are split on whether to increase or decrease spending, making a compromise at the Brussels summit seem impossible. The upcoming French election campaign may change this dynamic. Marine Le Pen called the budget negotiations before the French presidential vote "illegitimate," creating an informal deadline for EU leaders. Wealthy northern countries like Sweden and Germany want cuts to agriculture and regional funds, while poorer eastern nations demand a large budget, with France and Belgium supporting new EU taxes or joint loans. Historically, EU leaders only compromise at the last moment, likely at a summit around the new year. Sweden typically prioritizes lowering its EU fee over budget modernization, while the unspoken fear is that a President Le Pen could veto the entire deal and halt EU support for Ukraine.