Nvidia's stock has fallen after 6 of its last 8 earnings reports

Nvidia is set to report earnings Wednesday evening, but its stock has fallen in response to results in six of the past eight quarters, including the last four, according to Yahoo Finance AlphaSpace analysis. The market is positioned for strong results and a bullish tone from CEO Jensen Huang, with expectations running hot after the stock outperformed the S&P 500 by five percentage points over the past month. UBS analyst Tim Arcuri says the numbers matter more than the narrative, projecting a path to $15+ EPS in 2027 and $20 in 2028. HSBC analyst Frank Lee suggests a new narrative could drive a rerating, positioning Nvidia as the largest contributor to open-source AI. He notes open-source small language models are emerging as a preferred engine for agentic AI, potentially expanding Nvidia's total addressable market beyond frontier labs to individual developers and sovereign nations.