Nvidia options signal $280 billion post-earnings swing

Options traders expect a $280 billion swing in Nvidia's market value after its second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, with implied moves of 5.4 percent in either direction on Thursday. This forecast exceeds the market value of about 90 percent of S&P 500 companies. The expected move is below the 6.5 percent implied ahead of May's report and Nvidia's historical average swing of 7.4 percent over the last 12 quarters, according to ORATS. Analysts note actual post-earnings swings have often fallen short of options pricing, signaling reduced surprise potential. Nvidia shares fell for a seventh straight session Monday but are up 11.7 percent this year, while the S&P 500 gained 11.8 percent. The pullback coincides with rising Treasury yields and market unease, with investors watching revenue guidance, chip demand, and AI capital spending from major cloud providers.