Nvidia options signal $280 billion swing after earnings report

Options traders expect a $280 billion swing in Nvidia's market value after its Wednesday earnings report, implying a 5.4% move in either direction on Thursday. This is below the 6.5% move priced before its May report and the 7.4% historical average. The relatively modest expected move signals growing predictability, as actual post-earnings swings have often fallen short of options pricing over the past two years. Analysts note the era of massive surprise beats appears over, with Nvidia shares down seven straight sessions but up 11.7% this year. Nvidia's report comes amid broader market unease from rising Treasury yields and economic concerns. Investors will focus on its revenue guidance, chip demand, and AI capital spending from cloud providers, as Nvidia serves as a bellwether for the AI trade.