US midterm elections: What they mean for stocks, bonds, and gold

US midterm election results are expected to have limited direct market impact, with Democrats poised to retake the House and gain Senate seats, potentially complicating President Trump's domestic agenda while leaving tariff and foreign policy powers unchanged. J.P. Morgan Asset Management projects muted S&P 500 returns between -0.25% and +1% depending on the final outcome, with gridlock historically reducing policy uncertainty for equities. Technology faces closer scrutiny on AI infrastructure, though a presidential veto limits congressional reach, while Treasury supply concerns ease and the 10-year yield slips to about 4.91%. A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields could support gold and emerging markets, but Federal Reserve policy, crude oil prices, and AI spending remain the primary market drivers. Investors are advised against structural portfolio changes, with Middle East developments, Fed decisions, and trade policy warranting closer attention.